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One week until election day 2020.
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Pollster Political Consultant Frank Luntz is my guest
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on this edition of Politicking.
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(intense music)
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Welcome to Politicking, I'm Larry King.
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One week until election day,
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early voting has hit record levels.
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With so is the number of Covid-19 cases.
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Paul Serum, political consultant,
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good friend, Frank Luntz is here to assess the home stretch
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of the Trump-Biden contests.
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We ever seen anything like this?
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No, and I don't wanna see anything like it again.
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The truth is, I'm heading tonight to see the game six
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of the world series, because I just need to clear my head.
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And I know
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that that's not a great strategy with exactly one week to go
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before the election,
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but just maybe a little bit of baseball would
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give me a way to get through the next seven days.
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What happened was you ever hear anything concrete debated?
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The problem is that both candidates are being rewarded
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for not being specific.
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Both candidates are being rewarded for not being detailed.
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That Donald Trump's still does not have a clear COVID plan
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because he keeps denying its significance.
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And Joe Biden will not tell voters what he's going to do
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with the Supreme court
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or the filibuster, because he knows it'll alienate
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either his base, or swing voters.
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And so both candidates are being rewarded
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for doing this and the American people, instead
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of getting the details and the facts and the substance,
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the American people are just getting platitudes
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and ugly campaign ads
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and a debate that was a little bit better
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than the first one,
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but still not as affirming as we have the right to expect.
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How does that affect a pollster?
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Well, I've now said,
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and I'm prepared to acknowledge it on your show,
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that if the pollsters get it wrong, this time they're done.
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The industry is done, the profession is done.
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That they were so clear in proclaiming Hillary Clinton
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the winner in 2016 and they were wrong.
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And now they're doing the same thing with Joe Biden in 2020.
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If Donald Trump can come back and confound the experts,
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the polling profession is finished as a profession.
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And what are your pulses telling you?
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They're telling me now that the
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undecideds tend to be Trump voters who like what he's done
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but don't like how he did it.
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They like his agenda, but they don't really like him.
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Versus a Joe Biden who they like very much.
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They come, they've become accustomed to him
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and very positive in reaction to him as a person,
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but not so positive to his agenda,
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which I'm not sure that they know.
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And so the Trump people seem to be coming back.
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And basically those last undecideds are splitting off based
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on 2016 vote and based on their own partisan leanings.
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What that means is a slightly closer election.
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And we've seen that over the last 96 hours,
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but only slightly closer.
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The, the margins against Trump right now are significant.
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And I don't see how they're overcome.
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We hit our highest seven day average coronavirus cases
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since the pandemic.
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Again, Trump continued to assert the countries
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rounding the corner.
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Do you see that?
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I can see that.
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I can see that because the travel that I've had to do
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in this campaign
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I can't see that because of the people that I run into.
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That's when you look at the statistics,
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it's clearly significant and a threat.
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And the problem now is that nobody wants to be locked down.
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Nobody wants to go through that process
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we went through in April and may.
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And that may be required.
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And the other aspect that's a problem
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is that it's now affecting those communities
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that it did not affect before.
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COVID used to be an urban, a city virus.
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Now it's affecting all those communities
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that it had never touched
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in small towns and rural communities.
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And by the way, Larry,
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what I find most impactful from a political standpoint
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is that the very people who Donald Trump said,
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"Don't vote by mail. Don't trust it, vote in person."
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Those are the people who are most
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likely to be denied the right to vote
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or the chance to vote because of COVID spreading.
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And it's, it just adds an extra layer
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of chaos to an already chaotic situation.
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At least five of Mike Pence's aides, including his chief
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of staff have tested positive.
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Why isn't all of this a big issue?
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Because everyone's been testing positive
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because we've lost a lot of people,
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because it's now become a fact of life.
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That every day it's, it's the best way I can equate it,
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and I was barely alive for it,
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but it's what happened in Vietnam.
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When every night Walter Cronkite would
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lead would read the number of people who were killed
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or wounded, and they became just numbers.
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We heard it
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and saw it every day
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and it stopped having an impact on us.
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I think the same thing is happening right now with COVID,
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but I take it seriously
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because the numbers are just so significant.
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If Trump loses, we assume it's because of COVID
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Yes.
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Much as what, what you and I talked about before we went
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on the air, much as Herbert Hoover was the
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great depression, was the loss because of that event
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we're gonna say the same thing.
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And in fact, I'd say to you, I'm prepared
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to say now having watched the two debates and where we are
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as a country,
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that Donald Trump actually
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would've probably won reelection if COVID did not happen,
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because it affected not just the virus,
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not just healthcare,
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but the economy and jobs and government spending and taxes
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and the debt.
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And I think that it also led to one
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of the reasons why we had such significant
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social unrest earlier this year, is
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that people were frustrated and they were angry being held
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up, being locked up.
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And that was part of a reaction to,
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to what was happening to them.
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None of this would have happened if COVID had not happened.
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And so I understand why Donald Trump,
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why Donald Trump hates the Chinese government so much.
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Because they'd been just a little bit more honest
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and a little bit more forthcoming,
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Trump may be looking at four more years.
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More with Frank Luntz, right after this.
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(intense music)
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How come he never got his arms around this?
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I don't think he ever believed it.
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I think in the end,
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he thought that it was a myth, that he was told
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by the Chinese government, that it wasn't a big deal
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that he was informed that it was all under control.
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And then when he realized that that's just not true,
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it was too late.
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He was already mired in what was happening.
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And this is not an easy thing
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for a country like ours to deal with.
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If you're a totalitarian or authoritarian government
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you can lock people up in their homes easily.
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It's what you do every day, politically or economically.
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This country was experiencing the strongest economy
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in 50 years.
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This country was experiencing real job growth
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and wage growth.
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And then when all that went to hell
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people were really pissed off about it.
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And they frankly, they didn't want to stay at home.
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They wanted to work.
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They wanted to enjoy their newfound economic prosperity.
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And Trump wanted them to do it.
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But in the end,
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and I'll give you one polling statistic to back this up,
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we asked a question, which is a higher priority to you,
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(clearing throat)
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your health and safety or your economic safety?
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And the public chose health by two to one over economics.
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And I don't think Trump is expecting that choice.
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Yeah. The wrong people around him.
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How could he miss?
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Knowing that I have the wrong people around them?
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I think dr. Fauci has done an outstanding job.
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I think his staff has done an outstanding job.
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How could he miss,
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is that the Chinese were not honest or forthcoming.
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They simply told the world
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that everything was fine, that there were no problems.
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And the Chinese, they went and then they traveled
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during the Chinese new year.
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They went to all these countries
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as though everything was okay.
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And they brought the virus with them.
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It's funny, or ironic that they couldn't go to China,
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but they went across the globe.
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And, and right now I'm getting reports
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that the Chinese economy is back on track.
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that their growth rate is now exceeding 5%
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at the same time that we are still in deep trouble.
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Not that they meant to do this,
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not that that this was premeditated,
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I do not say that at all.
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But China has economically benefited from this.
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They've been responsible
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for the deaths of over a million people.
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And one has to wonder whether there'll be any response
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from those countries who have faced this.
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Look, we're all in this together,
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whether it's climate change
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or COVID or any of these issues that are global in scope.
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We're all in this together.
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And it may surprise you to hear it from me,
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but I really do accept
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that we've become an interconnected world,
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and we just need to be honest with each other,
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empathetic with each other, sympathetic with each other.
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And we have failed in that nature.
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We failed on the global scale
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and we failed on a local scale.
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That's not the kind of guy Trump is right?
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You're correct.
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Trump is not farsighted.
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But, but he's also a very strong individual
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and willing to speak truth to power.
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Trump is not afraid of the New York Times.
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He's not afraid of the leaders of China.
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And there is an advantage in having a president
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and that isn't afraid
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and that's willing to hold people accountable.
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The problem is that that's not
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what we're looking for right now.
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The American people want a hug
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not a, not a verbal Barb.
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They want someone who feels them,
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not just someone who,
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who intellectually understands what's going
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on and can fix it.
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How's this affect the polling D U M asks you
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does it affect where you go and how you see things?
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Well, my mask is actually
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about 10 feet away from me on my dining room table.
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Fortunately, I'm not polling anyone in my home.
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So that, that helps.
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I have not done any in-face focus groups.
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I have gone out to do one-on-one interviews
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and three on one interviews.
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In fact, I was just on the road this weekend.
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I've been on the road now,
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almost straight for the last two months.
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And, and like you, I went through a health scare
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for awhile, and I have to be careful.
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That said, I need to keep listening and learning
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from the public.
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Understanding where they stand is really essential.
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And it's never been more essential
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than now to try to be able to explain,
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both the hopes that people have, hopes and dreams,
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and to be able to explain their fear and anxiety.
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And Larry,
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let me just answer one more question that you didn't ask,
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I wanted to know what the phrase was
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and the word was to best describe the American election.
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So we asked people,
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we gave them a number of different choices.
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The number one word is "exhaustion."
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People are just exhausted
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by what we've been through for the last year.
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And the number one phrase
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that they said best represented their point
267
00:11:57.730 --> 00:12:00.027
of view about the election overall?
268
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"I am so tired of being so tired," and I get it.
269
00:12:04.460 --> 00:12:05.573
I feel the same way.
270
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All right when we come back,
271
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we'll get Frank Luntz's opinion
272
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on what will happen on November 3rd.
273
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More with the great Frank Luntz after this.
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Welcome back to Politicking,
275
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continuing the conversation with Frank Luntz.
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One of the nation's top pollsters, political consultant
277
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and master messaging.
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We have to get a prediction from Frank,
279
00:12:33.580 --> 00:12:37.270
a final prediction, and then we'll delve into it.
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What's going to happen the November 3rd?
281
00:12:39.612 --> 00:12:43.452
I, unless, unless the polls are really off,
282
00:12:43.452 --> 00:12:45.940
and unless something significant happens
283
00:12:45.940 --> 00:12:48.960
in the last seven days, because so many millions of people,
284
00:12:48.960 --> 00:12:51.990
45 million people that voted already, and we're going to get
285
00:12:51.990 --> 00:12:55.160
over 50 million within the next two, three days.
286
00:12:55.160 --> 00:12:56.510
We've never had, by the way,
287
00:12:56.510 --> 00:12:58.060
we couldn't have more people voting
288
00:12:58.060 --> 00:13:00.670
by mail and voting early and actually voting
289
00:13:00.670 --> 00:13:03.200
at the polling place on election day.
290
00:13:03.200 --> 00:13:06.252
So, so much of this is already baked
291
00:13:06.252 --> 00:13:08.412
and it's already determined.
292
00:13:08.412 --> 00:13:11.612
I don't see how Donald Trump catches Joe Biden.
293
00:13:11.612 --> 00:13:13.500
I think that Biden wins.
294
00:13:13.500 --> 00:13:14.670
I don't think it's a blowout.
295
00:13:14.670 --> 00:13:15.970
I don't think it's a landslide.
296
00:13:15.970 --> 00:13:19.450
And by the way, I don't think it's a mandate either.
297
00:13:19.450 --> 00:13:21.290
And here's the reason why.
298
00:13:21.290 --> 00:13:23.880
We ask people, voting for Biden and voting for Trump,
299
00:13:23.880 --> 00:13:25.970
is their vote more for their candidate
300
00:13:25.970 --> 00:13:28.020
or against the other candidate?
301
00:13:28.020 --> 00:13:29.190
In Donald Trump's case,
302
00:13:29.190 --> 00:13:33.100
80% of Donald Trump's voters are voting for him.
303
00:13:33.100 --> 00:13:36.400
And only 19% of voting against Biden.
304
00:13:36.400 --> 00:13:39.690
In Joe Biden's case, 54% of Biden's voters
305
00:13:39.690 --> 00:13:42.440
are actually voting against Donald Trump
306
00:13:42.440 --> 00:13:45.692
and only 46% are voting for Joe Biden.
307
00:13:45.692 --> 00:13:47.930
That's significant.
308
00:13:47.930 --> 00:13:50.530
That tells me that this election is a referendum
309
00:13:50.530 --> 00:13:51.790
on Donald Trump
310
00:13:51.790 --> 00:13:54.740
rather than a choice between Trump and Biden.
311
00:13:54.740 --> 00:13:58.590
So at this, at this stage, I see Biden is winning
312
00:13:58.590 --> 00:14:00.720
but not an endorsement of him.
313
00:14:00.720 --> 00:14:03.150
Simply a decision that they want to go
314
00:14:03.150 --> 00:14:05.500
in a different direction on the national scale.
315
00:14:06.580 --> 00:14:09.080
Big turn out or not?
316
00:14:09.080 --> 00:14:11.230
Huge turnout, a bigger turnout
317
00:14:11.230 --> 00:14:13.630
than anything we've had in more than 50 years.
318
00:14:13.630 --> 00:14:14.780
Everybody's voting.
319
00:14:14.780 --> 00:14:16.692
In fact, some people are voting twice.
320
00:14:16.692 --> 00:14:19.380
I'm going to Chicago on election day.
321
00:14:19.380 --> 00:14:21.760
Cause I hear my grandfather's coming back to vote.
322
00:14:21.760 --> 00:14:23.511
He's been dead for 40 years,
323
00:14:23.511 --> 00:14:25.350
but they tell me he's going to vote
324
00:14:25.350 --> 00:14:26.883
on election day in Chicago.
325
00:14:30.040 --> 00:14:33.090
What, what about this whole campaign
326
00:14:33.090 --> 00:14:37.000
as you viewed it troubled you the most?
327
00:14:37.000 --> 00:14:38.397
Were there days when you said,
328
00:14:38.397 --> 00:14:40.957
"I can't get a handle on this?"
329
00:14:42.070 --> 00:14:43.640
I finally understood...
330
00:14:43.640 --> 00:14:47.591
So let me offer you the place that I got the handle on.
331
00:14:47.591 --> 00:14:52.062
And I finally understood what was happening based
332
00:14:52.062 --> 00:14:57.040
on my focus groups over the presidential debates.
333
00:14:57.040 --> 00:15:01.250
Those undecided voters are undecided not because
334
00:15:01.250 --> 00:15:02.690
they disagree with the two candidates
335
00:15:02.690 --> 00:15:03.960
on policy.
336
00:15:03.960 --> 00:15:06.260
It's because for Donald Trump's case,
337
00:15:06.260 --> 00:15:08.480
they think his administration has been fine.
338
00:15:08.480 --> 00:15:09.970
They approve of his tax policy.
339
00:15:09.970 --> 00:15:13.110
They prove of what he's done, but they don't like him.
340
00:15:13.110 --> 00:15:14.160
They don't like his approach.
341
00:15:14.160 --> 00:15:15.180
They don't like his language.
342
00:15:15.180 --> 00:15:17.600
They don't like how he deals with people.
343
00:15:17.600 --> 00:15:19.190
They love Joe Biden.
344
00:15:19.190 --> 00:15:21.910
They really find him to be a decent and a kind individual
345
00:15:21.910 --> 00:15:25.041
and empathetic, but he won't tell them where he stands
346
00:15:25.041 --> 00:15:27.280
on issues that matter to them.
347
00:15:27.280 --> 00:15:29.010
So they refuse to back him
348
00:15:29.010 --> 00:15:31.220
because they think that he's hiding something.
349
00:15:31.220 --> 00:15:32.920
Therefore they have to decide
350
00:15:32.920 --> 00:15:34.460
which is more important to them.
351
00:15:34.460 --> 00:15:37.870
Donald Trump's persona or Joe Biden's policies.
352
00:15:37.870 --> 00:15:39.280
And that's why they're undecided.
353
00:15:39.280 --> 00:15:41.030
They can't figure that out yet.
354
00:15:41.030 --> 00:15:43.020
That's been the greatest conundrum.
355
00:15:43.020 --> 00:15:45.330
What's bothered me the most was that first debate.
356
00:15:45.330 --> 00:15:48.200
And candidly, I was in the hall.
357
00:15:48.200 --> 00:15:51.590
And if I had not been given a pass to attend,
358
00:15:51.590 --> 00:15:52.560
I would have stood up.
359
00:15:52.560 --> 00:15:54.887
I actually thought of standing up and saying,
360
00:15:54.887 --> 00:15:57.532
"everyone, shut the hell up, answer the questions
361
00:15:57.532 --> 00:15:59.920
and stop being rude to each other."
362
00:15:59.920 --> 00:16:03.001
It was such an embarrassment, so frustrating.
363
00:16:03.001 --> 00:16:05.590
But that's how they behaved,
364
00:16:05.590 --> 00:16:08.560
and the American people were just as angry as I was.
365
00:16:08.560 --> 00:16:11.633
President Trump hasn't mentioned rig lately,
366
00:16:11.633 --> 00:16:15.990
nor has he mentioned mail-in ballots lately.
367
00:16:15.990 --> 00:16:17.860
What do you make of that?
368
00:16:17.860 --> 00:16:20.310
He can't because he needs Republicans to vote
369
00:16:20.310 --> 00:16:23.140
by mail and he needs Republicans to participate
370
00:16:23.140 --> 00:16:24.750
in every possible way.
371
00:16:24.750 --> 00:16:27.900
And if you discourage people from voting early,
372
00:16:27.900 --> 00:16:30.410
then what happens if COVID really strikes
373
00:16:30.410 --> 00:16:31.860
in the next seven days
374
00:16:31.860 --> 00:16:33.920
Larry, it has been going up every single day.
375
00:16:33.920 --> 00:16:36.050
It's going to become more and more difficult
376
00:16:36.050 --> 00:16:37.730
for people in certain communities to go
377
00:16:37.730 --> 00:16:39.210
out and participate.
378
00:16:39.210 --> 00:16:40.942
Poll workers aren't going to want to participate
379
00:16:40.942 --> 00:16:44.310
and you can't shut it down at the last minute.
380
00:16:44.310 --> 00:16:46.670
I don't know the impact that it's going to have.
381
00:16:46.670 --> 00:16:48.473
It's going to be significant.
382
00:16:48.473 --> 00:16:50.237
Breaking it down, everything.
383
00:16:50.237 --> 00:16:54.373
We did this the last time, will Trump do well?
384
00:16:55.600 --> 00:16:57.860
I think he's going to do ever so slightly better
385
00:16:57.860 --> 00:16:59.881
among Hispanics and Latinos,
386
00:16:59.881 --> 00:17:02.890
particularly male Hispanics and Latinos.
387
00:17:02.890 --> 00:17:06.290
I think his vote total in 2020
388
00:17:06.290 --> 00:17:09.302
is going to be above what it was in 2016.
389
00:17:09.302 --> 00:17:11.820
Conversely, he's doing worse among women.
390
00:17:11.820 --> 00:17:14.720
And in fact the gender gap in this election cycle
391
00:17:14.720 --> 00:17:18.092
is going to be higher than it has ever been.
392
00:17:18.092 --> 00:17:21.670
That basically most men are voting for Trump.
393
00:17:21.670 --> 00:17:25.290
Most women are voting for Biden and I'm surprised
394
00:17:25.290 --> 00:17:28.290
that the divorce rate is not higher right now because of it.
395
00:17:30.130 --> 00:17:35.130
Wow. What what could change the whole picture?
396
00:17:35.291 --> 00:17:39.220
Terrorist attack in the last seven days?
397
00:17:39.220 --> 00:17:41.430
I don't believe a scandal will change
398
00:17:41.430 --> 00:17:44.860
because Trump has been trying so hard to show
399
00:17:44.860 --> 00:17:45.870
that Biden is corrupt.
400
00:17:45.870 --> 00:17:48.521
And I don't think that is landing with any voters.
401
00:17:48.521 --> 00:17:50.000
The ads won't change it.
402
00:17:50.000 --> 00:17:51.210
The rallies won't change it.
403
00:17:51.210 --> 00:17:53.040
The speeches won't change it.
404
00:17:53.040 --> 00:17:55.520
It's going to have to be some major
405
00:17:55.520 --> 00:17:57.610
event that would frighten me
406
00:17:57.610 --> 00:18:00.390
because it would have to be so significant at this point.
407
00:18:00.390 --> 00:18:01.353
Again
408
00:18:01.353 --> 00:18:04.081
if the polling is correct,
409
00:18:04.081 --> 00:18:06.840
but if the polling is wrong
410
00:18:06.840 --> 00:18:10.070
then my profession is not just going to have egg
411
00:18:10.070 --> 00:18:10.903
on its face,
412
00:18:10.903 --> 00:18:12.683
It's going to have a pie in the face.
413
00:18:12.683 --> 00:18:16.490
It;s going to look like soupy sales back in the 1960s.
414
00:18:16.490 --> 00:18:18.800
That's a reference for you, Larry.
415
00:18:18.800 --> 00:18:22.761
What aspect of the polling has surprised you?
416
00:18:22.761 --> 00:18:25.713
That the public is very willing to
417
00:18:25.713 --> 00:18:29.340
explain where they stand.
418
00:18:29.340 --> 00:18:33.520
I've had no trouble pulling out people's opinions.
419
00:18:33.520 --> 00:18:35.593
In fact, that's usually been the problem
420
00:18:35.593 --> 00:18:39.550
in my work because I do focus groups as well
421
00:18:39.550 --> 00:18:41.660
as quantitative polling,
422
00:18:41.660 --> 00:18:43.580
that people aren't forthcoming.
423
00:18:43.580 --> 00:18:45.190
That they don't explain how they think
424
00:18:45.190 --> 00:18:46.490
and how they feel.
425
00:18:46.490 --> 00:18:48.010
That they are really closed.
426
00:18:48.010 --> 00:18:49.540
Not in this election.
427
00:18:49.540 --> 00:18:50.991
Everybody wants to be heard,
428
00:18:50.991 --> 00:18:53.120
My problem areas,
429
00:18:53.120 --> 00:18:56.303
I'm not convinced that everybody wants to listen and learn.
430
00:18:57.770 --> 00:19:00.543
We'll be right back with more politicking.
431
00:19:02.542 --> 00:19:05.212
(intense music)
432
00:19:05.212 --> 00:19:09.062
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
433
00:19:09.062 --> 00:19:12.091
What encourages you about this?
434
00:19:12.091 --> 00:19:13.470
Well by the way,
435
00:19:13.470 --> 00:19:15.500
you mentioned the best of times, worst of times.
436
00:19:15.500 --> 00:19:17.120
I love that book.
437
00:19:17.120 --> 00:19:20.120
I would say to you that Donald Trump's campaign is almost
438
00:19:20.120 --> 00:19:23.610
like Frank Sinatra.
439
00:19:23.610 --> 00:19:25.561
I'd be playing "New York, New York" at all my rallies,
440
00:19:25.561 --> 00:19:28.113
and I'd be playing "My Way" at all my rallies.
441
00:19:28.113 --> 00:19:30.123
So I get that.
442
00:19:31.070 --> 00:19:33.093
It was a very good year is another one.
443
00:19:34.950 --> 00:19:36.530
I think what surprises me is
444
00:19:36.530 --> 00:19:40.790
that the public, even with a health scare is willing to come
445
00:19:40.790 --> 00:19:45.790
up, come out and show up for Donald Trump, even
446
00:19:46.040 --> 00:19:48.870
though he's down in most, down in every poll.
447
00:19:48.870 --> 00:19:50.910
And even though most pundits don't think
448
00:19:50.910 --> 00:19:52.210
he's going to win.
449
00:19:52.210 --> 00:19:53.980
That they're willing to be heard.
450
00:19:53.980 --> 00:19:55.720
They're willing to be seen
451
00:19:55.720 --> 00:19:57.970
And even to put their own health on the,
452
00:19:57.970 --> 00:20:01.060
on the line to let their support
453
00:20:01.060 --> 00:20:03.473
and their voice be heard by,
454
00:20:03.473 --> 00:20:05.270
by people like us.
455
00:20:05.270 --> 00:20:07.890
I'm surprised that the intensity of these rallies
456
00:20:07.890 --> 00:20:12.890
and how he can still really whip up a crowd.
457
00:20:12.990 --> 00:20:15.050
Frank, doesn't matter in the face of this
458
00:20:15.050 --> 00:20:17.080
seem stupid to you?
459
00:20:17.080 --> 00:20:20.273
Why would you go to a rally?
460
00:20:20.273 --> 00:20:22.450
Okay. Then you're going to say
461
00:20:22.450 --> 00:20:25.342
that I'm stupid because I want to see this.
462
00:20:25.342 --> 00:20:27.730
I want to know what's going on.
463
00:20:27.730 --> 00:20:28.980
I want to talk to people.
464
00:20:28.980 --> 00:20:30.210
I will stand away from them.
465
00:20:30.210 --> 00:20:31.281
I will have a mask on.
466
00:20:31.281 --> 00:20:36.141
I went to the peace agreement between Israel, Bahrain
467
00:20:36.141 --> 00:20:37.780
and UAE,
468
00:20:37.780 --> 00:20:40.201
because I knew how historic was it not been done
469
00:20:40.201 --> 00:20:42.761
in 27 years?
470
00:20:42.761 --> 00:20:46.210
I went to Trump's convention speech because I was invited.
471
00:20:46.210 --> 00:20:48.670
I wanted to see these events.
472
00:20:48.670 --> 00:20:50.030
I was careful.
473
00:20:50.030 --> 00:20:51.210
I was careful about what I touched.
474
00:20:51.210 --> 00:20:52.950
I was careful about where I went.
475
00:20:52.950 --> 00:20:55.680
I was careful about where I stood but
476
00:20:55.680 --> 00:20:57.881
that hasn't changed the day that I stopped
477
00:20:57.881 --> 00:21:00.870
really trying to understand America is the day
478
00:21:00.870 --> 00:21:02.350
that I've given up.
479
00:21:02.350 --> 00:21:05.180
And while I am not optimistic about our future,
480
00:21:05.180 --> 00:21:06.310
I haven't given up yet.
481
00:21:06.310 --> 00:21:07.310
I'm still trying.
482
00:21:07.310 --> 00:21:08.600
I'm still learning.
483
00:21:08.600 --> 00:21:13.600
And still trying to impart a sense of unity and community
484
00:21:13.680 --> 00:21:14.830
and frankly
485
00:21:17.050 --> 00:21:18.253
reconciliation.
486
00:21:19.510 --> 00:21:21.110
We all have a mantra.
487
00:21:21.110 --> 00:21:22.740
And that's mine.
488
00:21:22.740 --> 00:21:25.200
The idea that you and I don't agree on politics.
489
00:21:25.200 --> 00:21:28.710
I know we don't, but it's a joy to talk to you,
490
00:21:28.710 --> 00:21:30.838
even if it's just through the computer.
491
00:21:30.838 --> 00:21:33.490
You and I may not agree on policy,
492
00:21:33.490 --> 00:21:36.080
but I want to know how you think, what you think.
493
00:21:36.080 --> 00:21:37.870
I want to know your experiences.
494
00:21:37.870 --> 00:21:40.490
I want to know everything about you.
495
00:21:40.490 --> 00:21:42.570
I believe that under reconciliation,
496
00:21:42.570 --> 00:21:45.470
we'll again, be curious about each other,
497
00:21:45.470 --> 00:21:48.320
curious to know why things work the way that they do.
498
00:21:48.320 --> 00:21:52.158
Curious to know why we had successes and why we failed.
499
00:21:52.158 --> 00:21:53.987
That hasn't changed.
500
00:21:53.987 --> 00:21:56.080
And I think that's uniquely American
501
00:21:56.080 --> 00:21:58.630
and that's no matter what happens
502
00:21:58.630 --> 00:22:01.420
with Donald Trump and Joe Biden, that will still be a part
503
00:22:01.420 --> 00:22:03.193
of the American psyche.
504
00:22:04.320 --> 00:22:06.170
You said the Joe Biden will win.
505
00:22:06.170 --> 00:22:07.803
Can you break it down for me?
506
00:22:08.918 --> 00:22:11.900
Will we score well?
507
00:22:11.900 --> 00:22:13.300
I think Pennsylvania,
508
00:22:13.300 --> 00:22:14.133
the States that I'm looking at,
509
00:22:14.133 --> 00:22:16.940
Where Biden has the advantage right now
510
00:22:16.940 --> 00:22:19.870
are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin,
511
00:22:19.870 --> 00:22:22.667
and all five of those States when
512
00:22:22.667 --> 00:22:24.183
sorry, all three of those States with their
513
00:22:24.183 --> 00:22:26.678
roughly 50 electoral votes
514
00:22:26.678 --> 00:22:29.420
went for Donald Trump.
515
00:22:29.420 --> 00:22:31.630
I think that by winning those three States
516
00:22:31.630 --> 00:22:33.600
that gives Biden the edge.
517
00:22:33.600 --> 00:22:36.620
I do believe that Florida ends up in Trump's camp,
518
00:22:36.620 --> 00:22:37.579
Ohio which,
519
00:22:37.579 --> 00:22:41.150
which most of the polling shows is too close to call.
520
00:22:41.150 --> 00:22:43.000
I think that ends up with Donald Trump.
521
00:22:43.000 --> 00:22:45.820
I think Iowa ends up with Donald Trump.
522
00:22:45.820 --> 00:22:48.130
And so it's going to be a relatively
523
00:22:48.130 --> 00:22:49.929
relatively close election.
524
00:22:49.929 --> 00:22:52.190
But it's very hard to add those
525
00:22:52.190 --> 00:22:56.190
extra States, to get those extra electoral votes,
526
00:22:56.190 --> 00:22:58.720
to put, for me to actually see Trump
527
00:22:58.720 --> 00:23:01.290
beating Biden at this point
528
00:23:01.290 --> 00:23:02.140
But who knows?
529
00:23:02.140 --> 00:23:03.110
I could be surprised.
530
00:23:03.110 --> 00:23:04.513
I've been surprised before.
531
00:23:05.800 --> 00:23:08.530
Do you think women will elect Joe Biden president
532
00:23:08.530 --> 00:23:10.089
of the United States?
533
00:23:10.089 --> 00:23:10.922
Yes.
534
00:23:10.922 --> 00:23:13.930
And specifically younger women have been voting Democrat
535
00:23:13.930 --> 00:23:15.156
for many, many years,
536
00:23:15.156 --> 00:23:16.980
30 and under.
537
00:23:16.980 --> 00:23:20.420
Then it got to be women who are under the age of 40.
538
00:23:20.420 --> 00:23:22.498
Where I think Biden is going to do better than
539
00:23:22.498 --> 00:23:26.379
Hillary Clinton or women between the ages of 40 and 55,
540
00:23:26.379 --> 00:23:28.350
40 and 54.
541
00:23:28.350 --> 00:23:31.700
That those women had been Republican
542
00:23:31.700 --> 00:23:34.780
and now particularly married women with kids,
543
00:23:34.780 --> 00:23:37.060
and now that vote has shifted towards Biden.
544
00:23:37.060 --> 00:23:40.040
And one of the reasons why is the schools,
545
00:23:40.040 --> 00:23:41.580
and the opening of the schools.
546
00:23:41.580 --> 00:23:43.080
And you and I have not talked about this,
547
00:23:43.080 --> 00:23:45.430
but I think it's really, really important.
548
00:23:45.430 --> 00:23:48.470
The idea that Trump said go back to school,
549
00:23:48.470 --> 00:23:50.080
that all our kids would go back to school.
550
00:23:50.080 --> 00:23:52.560
And these moms were afraid to send their kids back
551
00:23:52.560 --> 00:23:55.010
to school because they were afraid they could get sick
552
00:23:55.010 --> 00:23:56.340
or they were afraid of the virus
553
00:23:56.340 --> 00:23:58.170
they would bring home with them.
554
00:23:58.170 --> 00:24:01.130
And that Donald Trump in that period of COVID
555
00:24:01.130 --> 00:24:02.750
when they were making the decisions
556
00:24:02.750 --> 00:24:04.920
on education, that the American
557
00:24:04.920 --> 00:24:07.130
people thought this is not the right approach
558
00:24:07.130 --> 00:24:09.537
to education that we need to be.
559
00:24:09.537 --> 00:24:13.289
We needed to react safely, sensibly and responsibly.
560
00:24:13.289 --> 00:24:17.410
And those women left Donald Trump at that point.
561
00:24:17.410 --> 00:24:19.610
And I think that that's going to be the deciding factor
562
00:24:19.610 --> 00:24:20.513
in this election.
563
00:24:22.138 --> 00:24:25.570
You, where are you election night? You get excited?
564
00:24:25.570 --> 00:24:26.403
Where are you?
565
00:24:27.500 --> 00:24:29.780
I will be in Washington to see election night.
566
00:24:29.780 --> 00:24:31.510
I hope to spend it with friends.
567
00:24:31.510 --> 00:24:34.450
You're right to ask me that question, because
568
00:24:34.450 --> 00:24:35.998
for me election night is,
569
00:24:35.998 --> 00:24:39.700
election night is Christmas and new year's,
570
00:24:39.700 --> 00:24:42.139
and my birthday all rolled up into one
571
00:24:42.139 --> 00:24:44.500
and where I spend it definitely matters.
572
00:24:44.500 --> 00:24:46.800
I've been offered the chance to be an analyst
573
00:24:46.800 --> 00:24:48.899
on a major national network.
574
00:24:48.899 --> 00:24:50.330
I have not decided yet
575
00:24:50.330 --> 00:24:52.307
if I would take it because I enjoy being
576
00:24:52.307 --> 00:24:57.307
with real people and, and I'll lose friends.
577
00:24:57.699 --> 00:24:59.460
What people don't realize is
578
00:24:59.460 --> 00:25:01.740
that individuals like me know all these senators.
579
00:25:01.740 --> 00:25:03.270
They know all these congressmen
580
00:25:03.270 --> 00:25:06.150
and some of my friends will be defeated on election night.
581
00:25:06.150 --> 00:25:07.330
And I want to be there for them
582
00:25:07.330 --> 00:25:10.540
and want to be there as a shoulder for them to support them
583
00:25:10.540 --> 00:25:13.140
and tell them that I'm grateful for their service.
584
00:25:13.140 --> 00:25:14.023
So we'll see.
585
00:25:14.860 --> 00:25:17.040
Frank, you are an important contributor
586
00:25:17.040 --> 00:25:19.790
to the American scene political or otherwise.
587
00:25:19.790 --> 00:25:22.219
It's an honor knowing you.
588
00:25:22.219 --> 00:25:24.276
No, Larry, Larry, please hear me.
589
00:25:24.276 --> 00:25:26.590
It is an honor knowing you,
590
00:25:26.590 --> 00:25:28.410
you're a national treasure.
591
00:25:28.410 --> 00:25:30.590
I'm glad that you were still doing this.
592
00:25:30.590 --> 00:25:34.210
And you have so many interviews and so many years to go.
593
00:25:34.210 --> 00:25:37.330
You teach us what we don't know on behalf of America.
594
00:25:37.330 --> 00:25:39.490
Thank you for all that you do.
595
00:25:39.490 --> 00:25:42.320
God bless. Frank Luntz.
596
00:25:42.320 --> 00:25:45.240
We thank him for his time today and we thank you
597
00:25:45.240 --> 00:25:48.110
for joining us on this edition of politicking.
598
00:25:48.110 --> 00:25:50.684
Hey, remember, you can join the conversation
599
00:25:50.684 --> 00:25:53.520
on my Facebook page and don't forget
600
00:25:53.520 --> 00:25:57.920
to use the politicking at Kings Things hashtag.
601
00:25:57.920 --> 00:26:01.226
That's all for this edition of politicking.
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00:26:01.226 --> 00:26:03.976
(intense music)